ABSTRACT
On the eve of the war’s third year, Ukraine’s vaunted counter-offensive has ended in stalemate. Ukraine may in fact lose ground this year. Political developments in the United States have meanwhile cast doubt on the sustainability of American support. While the Biden administration repeats the mantra of ‘for as long as it takes’, Republicans in Congress are indicating that it has already taken too long. In the House of Representatives, a hard core of MAGA Republicans has blocked the next tranche of military aid, ostensibly requiring draconian changes to US border policies in exchange for any concessions. There may be a majority in both houses of Congress favouring Ukraine aid in principle, but in practice Republicans have shown that it is not a top priority. Moreover, the increasingly plausible prospect that Donald Trump will return to the White House a year from now portends a dramatic turn away from Ukraine and into the unknown.
