ABSTRACT
Concomitantly, the overthrow of the Shah and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, along with Soviet gains in Ethiopia and South Yemen, raised fears in the West and among the Arab Gulf states of a carefully orchestrated Soviet strategy of encirclement, aimed ultimately at subverting the Gulf region. As the decade ended, Soviet fortunes in the Middle East and the Gulf region seemed to drop dramatically in Moscow's eyes. Rather than weakening Western influence in the region, Iraqi policy has contributed to increasing Western involvement in the area at the expense of the Soviet Union, thus constituting another of Moscow's current policy dilemmas in the Gulf. Reconciled to dilemmas, accepting the continuation of local conflicts it cannot resolve, and prepared to commit substantial resources in situations where desired outcomes are far from certain, the Soviets have aspired to local gains more to undermine the US and the West than to achieve local Communist influence.
