ABSTRACT
This final chapter develops a number of scenarios to explore the possible future development of the Russian Far East. Mention has already been made of the Federal Programme for the Economic and Social Development of the Far East and the Transbaikal for 1996–2005. This document was a major policy statement about the future economic development strategy for the RFE. The period of 1996–2000 was identified as a period of stabilisation during which economic decline ends and the preconditions for recovery are created. That period has now passed by and the best that can said is that the economy of the region now shows signs of having ‘bottomed out’. The period of 2000–2005 was seen as the time frame for economic recovery. The Programme presented a solid analysis of the problems facing the region, but failed to explain adequately how the funds would be found and how and by whom the plan should be implemented. For the purposes of the current analysis it is important to note that according to the Federal Programme economic recovery is to be based on two factors:
The Russian Far East and the Transbaikal at the present time and in the future represents one of the largest remaining resource bases in Russia. That natural resource potential can be used to meet the needs of the economy and also to generate income from exports for both the federal and regional budgets.
The ‘economic geographic position’, including the border-coastal location, is favourable for the development of economic relations with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. This factor can compensate for the situation of the distancing of the region from the Russian market and increasing transportation costs.
