ABSTRACT

Individual level data from 1990-92 is analyzed in order to assess the role played by social class, geography and economic attitudes in producing variations in reported vote intention during the long campaign leading to the 1992 British general election. Using logistic regression techniques all three independent variables are shown to be significant, but the crucial advantage of the logistic model is that it allows the detailed analysis of interaction effects between independent variables. The interaction effects between economic and geographic variables show that although how an individual decided to vote was largely shaped by what they thought of the economy - through personal economic expectations - the extent to which optimism or pessimism could be discounted was spatially variable. Crucially under certain conditions the geographic considerations were likely to dominate economic considerations, illustrating that an autonomous regional cleavage was an important part of the socialization milieux that framed an individuals' partisanship in the early 1990s.