ABSTRACT
While US intelligence failed to predict a Soviet nuclear deployment to Cuba, and failed even during the crisis itself to identify the presence of a significant Soviet Group of Forces armed with both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons, US intelligence did serve American policy well by discovering the deployment of strategic nuclear missiles in time to permit President Kennedy to take the initiative to compel their withdrawal. The chief cause of the predictive failure was a lack of estimative empathy: US intelligence did not appreciate the strength and importance of the defensive and deterrent purposes of the Soviet deployment. Ironically, if US 220intelligence had appreciated the full size and nature of the Soviet deployment, resolving the crisis would have been considerably more difficult.
