ABSTRACT
Given the poor track record of prognosticators about the effects of recent electoral reforms in Italy, Japan, Israel and New Zealand, there are reasons to be sceptical about predictions concerning possible reforms in Britain. Problems of prediction stem from three general classes of factors: the mechanical and semi-mechanical, the strategic and the ontological. Applying our knowledge of the mechanical effects of electoral institutions requires knowledge of many details that often are unknowable at the time. Applying our understanding of the strategic imperatives created by electoral institutions is weakened both by the limited knowledge in the hands of those actors who are presumed to act strategically and by our limited knowledge of the goals that they actually will pursue. Understandings of democracy are not necessarily shared universally, yet they influence both choices about behaviour and evaluations of results.
