ABSTRACT
This chapter examines the Turkey's convergence towards EU standards has remained suboptimal and unsystematic because of two factors: the control-reliance and muddling through that characterized Turkish decision-making, and the incomplete nature of the contracts governing EU-Turkey relations. It can be argued that the Customs Union (CU) may alter the cost/incentive structure faced by the Turkish government and function as an anchor that locks in economic reforms. Turkey's association with the EU has always been presented as a signal of the country's European orientation and an anchor ensuring the irrevocability of the Europeanization process. This view has been voiced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank with respect to free trade arrangements between developed and developing countries. The Helsinki European Council decision to accept Turkey as a candidate for membership was a significant step in the direction of addressing the anomaly in EU-Turkey relations.
The formal link with the EU was expected to reduce the probability of Turkey’s deviations from its declared European orientation and make Europeanization less costly. This article argues that such expectations have been too optimistic. Both EU and Turkish policy-makers have continuously ignored the ‘control-reliance’ and ‘muddling through’ aspects of the Turkish policy-making process and the incomplete nature of the contracts expected to lock in Turkey’s European orientation. Consequently, Turkey’s European orientation has lacked credibility, its convergence towards EU standards has remained suboptimal, and Turkey has become economically integrated with but politically detached from the EU. The article examines these anomalous results with respect to economic policy, human rights and the Cyprus problem. Based on this analysis, the article concludes with an assessment of the Helsinki decision confirming Turkey’s candidacy and explores the conditions that must be satisfied to ensure that the road from Helsinki leads to Turkey’s integration with the EU.
