ABSTRACT
This chapter addresses the gap in the civil war research programme, while advancing a new analytical perspective on some of Africa's most devastating conflicts. It argues that civil war risk in sub-Saharan Africa is mediated by political alliances or networks, especially the institution of ethnic accommodation. The chapter explains about ethnic exclusion. It suggests an alternative logic that posits that ethnic exclusion is a function of strategic uncertainty–in particular the difficulties of sharing power in the shadow of the coup d'etat, after reviewing more familiar theses about the effects of colonialism and resource scarcity. The chapter challenges the conventional wisdom on civil war in Africa. It shifts the focus from the material and institutional capacity of the state, to the inter-ethnic bargains that are critical to social peace. The chapter reviews familiar theses about colonial legacies of societal inequality and the pathologies of neopatrimonialism to argue that the strategic environment in which ethnic bargaining plays out.
