ABSTRACT
National health insurance (NHI) will increase the demand for all forms of medical care. Because of limited predicted effects of NHI on hospital and drug prices, this chapter focuses on the predicted impact of national health insurance on physician fees and earnings. The discussion conveniently divided into two sections; first, the report results of an aggregative long-run model of the market for physician services in which we simulate conditions under various assumptions about the extent of insurance provided. The model's predictions concerning annual prices and numbers of physicians under these various assumptions are reported through the year 2000. The second part predicts the effects of such price controls superimposed by various possible insurance programs. The model directly estimates the effects of price controls on future physician supply, and attempts crudely to quantify the social costs of such controls. The chapter estimates the effect on health care market of imposing controls over fees.
