ABSTRACT
Uncertainty often feeds on itself with the result that it becomes self-fulfilling. By ignoring the fact that their future depends to a considerable extent on what happens in the rest of the world, the developed countries are creating greater uncertainty. Much of this uncertainty stems from lack of awareness of the nature of the interdependence of nations and of the complex interactions that occur between sectors like agriculture and energy. Economic forecasting is unsuitable for most of the issues examined by Interfutures, which were as much socio-political as economic, and for 10-20 years or more. Interfutures used two principal models, the Systems Analysis Research Unit Model (SARUM) and a trade model constructed by members of the Interfutures team. Interfutures constructed six scenarios. The scenarios examined range from a high growth, consumption oriented, non-conflictual pathway; to a slow or moderate growth future based on post-materialist values; to ones of economic and political but not military conflict either North-North or North-South.
