ABSTRACT
This chapter decomposes hot spots into two primary types by duration, chronic and temporary. Chronic hot spots are fixed with durations of at least a year, but often last much longer, even for decades. Temporary hot spots are dynamic with an on-and-off behavior for weeks or months at a time. As such, chronic hot spots merit constant crime prevention programs by police, while temporary hot spots should have dynamic allocations of police resources. Needed for dynamic allocations are accurate models for predicting temporary hot spots, or early detection with accurate predictions of persistence. Criminological theories suggest crime patterns that are the basis for accurate-enough crime prediction models. Notable in our paper (Gorr and Lee 2015) and in this chapter is the introduction of distributional equity of police crime prevention services as an important performance criterion for hot spot program design, in addition to the commonly used effectiveness criterion. This chapter makes the case that a combination chronic and temporary hot spot program is the most effective and equitable program. In doing so the chapter reviews related criminological theories, prediction models, police interventions for crime prevention, performance measures, and police policy.
