ABSTRACT
Despite a long history of research on political budget cycles, their existence and magnitude are still in question. We conduct a meta-regression analysis of this literature with the intention to clarify the debate. Based on data collected from 1,037 estimates, results suggest that manipulation of national public accounts by political leaders before elections is in average limited at best and over-estimated by researchers. In addition, through a bayesian model averaging and a multiple meta-regression analyses, we identify some factors, such as country characteristics and methodological choices affecting magnitude of cycles estimated by scholars.
JEL Classification: C82, D72, D78, E62, H0
