ABSTRACT
This introduction presents an overview of the key concepts discussed in the subsequent chapters of this book. The book presents a careful examination of the impact of the inclusion of various alternative measures of the money supply on the behavior of the composite leading index. It focuses on the usefulness of different measures of monetary changes. The book considers the possibilities of including business cycle indicators in econometric models and the potential gain involved. It also considers the potential gains from adding variables which represent anticipations to the evidence of more explicit advance commitment represented in the leading series by, for example, new orders and building permits. The book aims to a group of essays assessing the usefulness of cyclical indicators in forecasting business cycle developments. It explains an aspect of the business cycle indicator approach which has always been of concern to Geoffrey H. Moore.
