ABSTRACT
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old saw puts it, is that the future lies ahead. Forecasting is a maddening occupation. It is always fascinating and exciting and rewarding. Yet it is also regularly exasperating and infuriating, occasionally even deranging. In the 1960s, however, the limitations of forecasting were seldom recognized either inside or outside the profession. During the following decades, public expectations have subsided, although not as far or as fast as the repute of the economics profession. In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. The "leading indicators" are so widely known and so well regarded that they could easily be classified as an entirely separate methodology. All players in the forecasting game, learn all the techniques as they go along and they incorporate the best features of all of them into their own forecasting approach.
