ABSTRACT
This chapter analyses alternative agricultural policy scenarios in selected Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) in the framework of a partial equilibrium model and outlines policy scenarios, protection levels, market effects, and budget implications. It discusses the computable general equilibrium framework, and contains subsections describing the macroeconomic importance of agriculture in CEECs, the analytical approach adopted, and the results obtained. The chapter shows that an alignment of agricultural policies in the CEECs to the much higher prices in the European Union (EU) under the current CAP is likely to result in a significant increase in agricultural production and exports. With their accession to the EU, agricultural policies in CEECs will change more or less dramatically depending on the nature of the future of the Common Agricultural Policy. Protection decreased significantly and agricultural markets were freed from central planning. The accession scenarios analyse the impact of a gradual movement towards EU membership for the agricultural and food sector.
