ABSTRACT
This chapter analyzes how the changes in domestic and foreign macroeconomic variables can affect Brazilian meat exports, and consequently the Brazilian economy, in particular its beef and poultry sectors. It describes the economic model and the econometric analysis used to analyze the effects of changes in macroeconomic variables on the Brazilian meat exports and the impact of change in those exports on the Brazilian economy. The chapter presents a vector auto-regression (VAR) model to evaluate the impact of changes in domestic and foreign macroeconomic variables on Brazilian meat exports. The results obtained in the VAR model are applied in an input-output model to evaluate the changes in the levels of importance of the different production sectors, and especially in the slaughter and meat preparation industry. The industrialized countries industrial production index is the foreign variable that affects the Brazilian beef and poultry exports more significantly.
