ABSTRACT
The results of comparative stability analysis of demand- and supply-side input-output models using Turkish data are presented, and the results of comparative stability analysis of the two models in the US, UK, Japanese, Italian and Turkish cases are compared. The forecasts of sectoral and total output of the two models are generated with known output figures for benchmark years. The results of the studies carried out using input-output data of five different countries show some similarities. The demand-side model performs somewhat better in terms of total output forecasts, but the supply-side model performs somewhat better for a larger number of sectors. Also, in all countries studied, the supply-side model provides markedly superior forecasts for ‘mature’ sectors, such as agriculture and mining. However, there is a notable difference between the five countries regarding the performance of supply-side model in forecasting the construction output. The construction sector’s performance is predicted better by the demand-side model in Japan, Italy and Turkey, whereas the supply-side model produces better construction forecasts in the case of the UK and US. Some other differences regarding several other sectors may be due to different aggregation schemes.
