ABSTRACT
At the time, the events of the Arab Spring in the Middle East and North Africa appeared to mark a paradigm shift in the events of the region, a breach in the wall of autocratic government that had surrounded it since the end of colonial occupation. In reality, however, the events of 2011 were the culmination of popular aspirations that had begun long before but had been frustrated by authoritarian indifference and repression. Although those aspirations remain largely unsatisfied and, in some cases, have degenerated into armed civil conflict, they nonetheless provided the evidence that political participation is achievable despite external intervention and the extremist challenge that it had generated. Another reality, too, has emerged from the events of the past seven years: a profound change in the distribution of power within the international order as it applies to the Middle East and North Africa. Both changes may well, in retrospect, turn out to be paradigm shifts in the international relations of the Arab region. This chapter will chart the progress that has been made and the disruptions that the process has had to confront in both arenas and attempt to predict what the immediate future may hold.
