ABSTRACT
A dynamic model of deforestation around Dar es Salaam is constructed, linking marginal production cost and demand for charcoal. The exploited area forms a wedge, which expands inland as net price of charcoal increases. Wood is primarily harvested at the edge of the wedge. Simulations show that under reasonable assumptions charcoal price increases from 1800 to 1958 Tsh/bag in 10 years, supply area from 3416 to 6886 km2, and harvest from 2.05 to 2.66 mill m3/year. Increment of woody biomass within the wedge will supply little charcoal for many years because woodland density does not affect production costs. Therefore, reduced demand for charcoal and shift to other forms of energy are the factors controlling deforestation. © 1997 Academic Press
