ABSTRACT
The paper presents a selective review of research suggesting possible normal causes for some coincidences. After a brief discussion of hidden causes, predictions with multiple endpoints, and simple probability, the bulk of the paper focuses on psychological research into judgement and decision-making under uncertainty. Shortcuts in information processing that have been held responsible for apparent weaknesses in everyday statistical intuitions are discussed, as are recent criticisms of this heuristics and biases paradigm Examples are given of studies demonstrating how perception, judgement and recollection may be biased so as to confirm our preconceptions. Some implications of this research for the study of coincidences are pointed out, and research suggesting promising remedial measures to improve judgement is noted.
