ABSTRACT
: Microsimulation models have been used extensively to address distributional questions in a population. The work on dynamics is perhaps less voluminous, but still substantial. The challenges in dynamic modelling of a population are considerable, yet multiplied further when there are several sub-populations, as within a spatial microsimulation. The Moses dynamic model builds on a baseline simulation or Population Reconstruction Model (PRM) which recreates the entire UK population as an array of households and their constituent members. The PRM uses synthetic records from the 2001 Census Sample of Anonymised Records which provides quite an extensive array of social and demographic characteristics for each household. The order in which the various demographic modules are implemented is also worthy of further discussion. There is some logic to the ordering – for example, the demographic transitions come before migration, because if there is a spatial dependence then this is more likely to be historically embedded than newly acquired.
