ABSTRACT
Introduction Complex socio-technical systems, for example power provision, production, communication and transportation systems, are generally designed through a process of iterative simulation and optimization. Safety critical and consequential systems are, by necessity, designed as fused systems of humans and technology (Hollnagel, 2001). In such systems, which are referred to here as joint cognitive systems, the human(s) and the technological components share control responsibility. They do so both by fixed assignment and through flexible shared modes dependent on system and operator state (Sheridan, 1992). The design of such systems requires efficient and effective methods for analysis and prediction of future system performance. Such methods often rely heavily on mathematical models that describe the non-human parts of the system and the environment in which they operate. There is therefore a need to describe the human portion of the system in a manner consistent with the majority of the system, that is to say, through some computational representation of the joint cognitive system (Baron and Corker 1989). Otherwise, the human ‘component’ may be left out of key decision-informing material. This chapter addresses the development and implementation of such computational models of human and joint cognitive performance as they apply to the processes of air traffic management. Modeling Human Performance Why Model the Human Components of ATM Systems? The assessment and prediction of human performance in air traffic management (ATM) systems has been a central concern for system designers throughout the history of their development (Hopkins, 1995; Mavor, Parasuraman and McGee, 1998). The increased rate of development of ATM system enhancements, the tremendous economic pressure to implement and reap immediate benefits from
ATM technologies, and the significant complexity and cost of large-scale distributed air-ground tests have provided impetus for identification of efficiencies in system development and deployment.
