ABSTRACT
This chapter examines “generational congestion” by Millennials in large Canadian housing markets and offers a tool that planners and policymakers can use to examine and address this issue. Generational congestion means increasing demand in the housing market as a generational cohort starts to form new households and seeks to buy or rent houses in the market. The chapter begins with a contextual overview, focusing on the cohort approach to population projections, as well as the affordability constraints faced by young adults. The authors then examine the extent of generational congestion in Canada and illustrate necessary modifications to derive the index of generational congestion at a local level. The chapter finds that Millennial pressure on the Canadian housing market peaked in 2015, similar to the USA. The index of generational congestion shows wide variation across mid-sized and large metropolitan areas in the USA and Canada. Inclusive of net migration, the index shows that outflows may already be outpacing inflows in some Canadian housing markets, indicating that young adults could be the wrong generational change on which to focus. The increasing outflow of older adults may finally bring the challenges to local housing markets that have been prematurely forecast for years.
