ABSTRACT
Contending with the specters of climate change and resource depletion will require deep reductions in the global use of fossil fuel–based energy over the coming decades. There are essentially three strategies for accomplishing this: changing production from fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) to non-fossil fuels such as renewable and nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage, and reduction in energy consumption. It is becoming increasingly apparent that renewable energies will not be phased in fast enough to make a dent in rising global carbon emissions. Nuclear energy provides a carbon-free alternative, but it is expensive and bears with it risks of severe accidents and problematic environmental side effects. Carbon capture is expensive, the technology is immature, and there is growing political resistance in Europe to carbon storage. Germany has recently decided to close the door on carbon storage. Added to these difficulties is a desperate need for energy among the 1.4 billion people globally who do not have access to electricity. For example, only 50 percent of India’s rural population and only 24 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s population have access to electricity. These and other parts of the developing South and East will need energy use for basic services such as light, health care, and schooling, as well as for developing their economies. Energy will also be needed for “intermediate development” in India, China, and Brazil, as well as other Asian and South American countries with rapidly growing economies. These countries will need massive amounts of energy for industrial development and to accommodate the demands of growing middle classes for household energy appliances and automobiles.
