ABSTRACT
Actors preparing for climate change require specific local knowledge applicable to their region. Knowledge about possible impacts of long-term climate change on the regional climate is required to manage state uncertainty. Knowledge about possible effects of future climate change on different regional activities (e.g. the effects of heavier and more frequent precipitation events on regional tourism or settlement development) is needed to address effect uncertainty. Prospective scenario planning is one way to create this local knowledge. In the last 20 years a broad variety of new scenario planning approaches has emerged. They are mainly based on a shift from forecasting to foresight. Within this second generation of scenario planning approaches, there are similarities and differences among different practices, both in epistemological terms and in ways of anticipating, visioning, networking and acting on the path towards possible futures. All the practices can be applied for strategic planning practices, but each has different functionalities and dysfunctionalities with respect to the sharing and assessing of (local) knowledge. This chapter analyses functionalities and dysfunctionalities of a prospective approach, based on the experience of collaborative transdisciplinary research on climate change adaptation in the urban region of Rostock in Germany between 2010 and 2012.
