ABSTRACT

This chapter explores the concerns for China's future. It considers whether the country can survive without a pluralist civil society. The chapter examines whether it can sustain "enough" economic growth, and the extent of progress towards re-balancing the economy. It considers possible "triggers" that might precipitate a national crisis: the burden of debt; "ghost cities" and a property bubble; corruption; the polluted environment, and trade war with US. The most fundamental issue for China concerns the sustainability of a country where power is concentrated in single party-state, with no checks and balances to moderate its actions and support its legitimacy. The central fact of Chinese experience since 1978 has been spectacular economic growth and its impact on material well-being and international influence of nation. The most pressing requirement is that growth be sufficient to avoid mass unemployment, absorbing any increase in size of labour force, and providing work for millions of rural residents who continue to stream to the cities.