The Incorrigibly White Republican Party

Race and the shifting array of issues surrounding it have been a fundamental structuring force in elections for much of American history. ¹ In modern times, race was one of the crucial issues responsible for the decomposition of the New Deal coalition and the string of Republican successes in presidential elections from 1968 to 1992. ² For example, in 1988, George Bush effectively exploited white fears of black crime to maintain the loyalty of Reagan Democrats. In 1992, by contrast, Bill Clinton found a way to appeal to white Reagan Democrats while maintaining fervent support among African Americans. Clinton’s strategic brilliance allowed him, in the words of political scientist Lucius Barker, to “deracialize” the presidential election. ³ Much the same could be said of the Dole-Clinton race of 1996, in which racial issues seldom surfaced. Yet throughout the period 1964–1996, as issues shifted and blacks gained in electoral power, two things remained constant. The Democrats received an overwhelming majority of the black vote, and the Republicans received more white votes than the Democrats did, sometimes by landslide margins (as in 1984). At the same time, Republicans also had been losing support among other racial groups, particularly Hispanics and Asians. In the wake of the anti-immigrant rhetoric and actions by Republicans in the early 1990s, many racial minorities began voting Democratic at even higher rates than before. Thus, every Republican presidential campaign was premised on winning enough white votes to beat the Democratic advantage among nonwhites.