ABSTRACT
By utilizing the “Monthly Monitoring and Warning System for the Macroeconomy,” which was jointly formulated by the State Information Center and our school, we have analyzed six coincident indicators reflecting different aspects of the macroeconomic situation and growth rates. Effective economic growth start by expanding consumer spending; stimulating growth in investment; facilitating new economic growth, so that another benign cycle of macroeconomic growth can get underway. In 1998, China’s macroeconomic adjustment program was oriented towards “increasing investment demand to compensate for the comparative contraction in export demand,” which increased the pressure on the expansion of domestic demand. The leverage effect of interest rates on economic adjustment is still somewhat restricted. But it is also a result of money supply not having been increased proportionately. If the macroeconomic adjustment program offers reasonable adjustments and control, a new round of economic growth will not be far off.
