ABSTRACT
The new Bayesian, or probabilistic, paradigm in the psychology of reasoning
(Oaksford & Chater, 2007, 2009; Over, 2009; Pfeifer & Kleiter, 2010) implies
a close parallel relationship between assertions of the indicative conditional
of natural language, if A then C, and other uses of conditionals, particularly
bets on conditionals, I bet that if A then B. Politzer, Over, and Baratgin
(2010) explain how this predicted relation goes back to Ramsey (1926/1990,
1929/1990) and de Finetti (1936/1995, 1937/1964) and provide experimental
evidence that this parallel relation exists (see also Baratgin, Over, & Politzer, in press).
