ABSTRACT
There is recognition by health planners and academics that the ageing of populations has the potential to place growing demands on health services, and that this pattern of demand will vary by place. This chapter outlines how the 2011 Census aggregate outputs, together with microdata from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), have been used to estimate the demand placed on the health services in each English local authority district to 2031, focusing on three specific morbidities. The morbidities studied are cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes or high blood sugar (DHBS) and respiratory illnesses (RI). Together, these three morbidities are the primary cause of nearly half the deaths in those aged 50 and older. The Census 2011 data also provide inputs for the sub-national population projections and for the revision of 2001 Census-based local ethnic projections. Without these Census data, the spatial scale for this modelling would need to be regional at best and local variations would be absent, making future resource planning difficult.
