ABSTRACT
This chapter presents model-generated projections of economic and financial developments that may be anticipated in the period up to 2030 under alternative assumptions about global and European governance systems. Four main scenarios are presented: ‘Struggling on’, ‘EU break-up’, ‘Multi-speed Europe’ and ‘Towards Federal Europe’. Each scenario makes one or more assumptions about the global context. Global contexts, similar to those discussed in a number of European and US reports including Global Trends published by the National Intelligence Council, include
continued integration and commercialisation of global trade, technology and finance with governments having relatively less influence and financial resources (‘reduced government’); in this context Europe is ‘struggling on’ or undergoing ‘break-up’.
fragmented leadership with the US and China following separate and to some extent conflicting agendas (‘US-China accommodation’); combines with the same European alternatives.
regional integration similar to that in Europe developing in the Far East and North/Central America and, with less effect or greater difficulty, in South America, Africa, and the rest of Asia (‘regionalisation’); combines with ‘multi-speed Europe’ or ‘towards Federal Europe’
cooperation between world regions to tackle common problems such as financial instability, energy risks, climate change and slow development of low income countries (‘multi-polar cooperation’) combining with ‘towards Federal Europe’.
