ABSTRACT
This chapter is concerned with energy and climate change, which are seen as global issues affecting all countries. We therefore concentrate mainly on explicitly global governance scenarios.
The first section reviews the history of global climate change negotiations to clarify the inherent difficulty of establishing an agreed and effective governance regime, and highlights the role of Europe in these negotiations.
The next section presents an analysis of factors which will have an important influence on two outcomes: the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions which contribute to climate change, and the ability of societies in each part of the world to adapt to climate change as it takes place. Success in containing or reducing emissions is described as ‘mitigation’. Since mitigation and 188adaptation are complementary ways of responding to the risks inherent in climate change it is important to understand which social, economic and technological factors have the most important leverage on outcomes in both dimensions. The methodology used in this study is to identify alternative socio-economic pathways that condition mitigation and adaptation outcomes.
The third section outlines timescales for the effect of changes in socio-economic drivers to the responses of the climate system, demonstrating the extent to which socio-economic and technological developments in the period up to 2030 will predetermine the range of possible outcomes up to 2050 and beyond.
The final section of the chapter relates socio-economic and technological developments to the AUGUR global governance scenarios (see Chapter 2). The evolution of global governance systems and associated patterns of economic growth, financial regulation and technology development considered in other chapters of this report will facilitate or hinder socio-economic and technological changes that are important for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Considering the high degree of uncertainty surrounding climate change processes and outcomes and the long timescale for policy responses to take effect, governments in Europe and other parts of the world must seek to agree on robust policies that minimise risk without obstructing development. Fortunately, many of the policies required to improve energy security in the face of depletion of cheap sources of oil and gas will also contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The risks for climate change are highest in the event of the global ‘reduced government’ scenario (S1) with Europe ‘struggling on’. Although the ‘EU break-up’ governance scenario could favour energy-saving as it would increase the need for economic security at the national level, the impact on potential for adaptation would clearly be negative and it seems likely that the effect on mitigation may also be adverse as lower growth rates and competition between exporters will prolong the period of availability of cheap oil and gas, discouraging beneficial changes in technology and infrastructure. The global governance scenarios that are more positive for economic growth, ‘regionalisation’ and ‘multipolar collaboration’ (S3 and S4), will also be more favourable for adaptation and provide a better opportunity for cooperative policies to improve energy security and mitigate climate risks. The best and most effective European contribution would probably be found in the context of the ‘towards federal Europe’ variant within the global scenario of ‘multipolar collaboration’ (S4). At the same time it has to be recognised that scenarios favourable to global economic growth, in particular catching-up by low and middle-income countries, greatly increase the urgency of socio-economic and technological changes that can help to reduce energy use and switch to non-carbon sources. Failing this, the contradictions between environmental and developmental concerns will remain.
