ABSTRACT
The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs has simulated how demographics, health, morbidity and mortality may develop over the next 40 years, and what impact this has on the need for health and elderly care up to year 2050. This chapter summarizes the development of the model within the LEV project, which was initiated in 2006 or 2007. The LEV project built on the Baby Boom work, and extended the SESIM model into what here refer to as SESIM-LEV. The SESIM model was originally developed by the Swedish Ministry of Finance. The model population consists of a representative sample of the Swedish population in 1999, geographically distributed over nine fictive geographical regions. The primary data source from which the model population was collected is LINDA, a longitudinal database containing approximately 3.5 per cent of the Swedish population. Individual health status is perhaps the most important determinant of healthcare consumption, but this was lacking from the base population.
