ABSTRACT
This chapter seeks to establish a link between Nick's work on evaluation and a statistical tradition derived from Bayes Theorem with which it has so far not, to the authors knowledge, been linked. As will become clear to the reader, however, Bayesian statistics is also relevant to problem-oriented policing (POP), to EMMIE and indeed to future attempts to determine 'what works' to drive down crime. The chapter focuses upon applications to policing policy and practice, that being where so many of Nick Tilley's contributions have been made. It describes the basics of the Realist approach as promulgated by Tilley and Pawson, highlighting aspects that may be enriched by Bayesian thinking. The chapter outlines the basics of the Bayesian mode of thought and finally identifies the points of contact between the literatures with suggestions made about what might happen next if the direction of travel suggested were to be found persuasive.
