ABSTRACT
For over a decade, energy analysts have discussed the possibility that world oil production would peak and decline, creating an enormous amount of economic trouble. However, few actually researched the math and data being used to support these claims. The math proved to be invalid, using methods like comparing cumulative amounts for variables, that do not yield usable results. And assumptions, such as that recovery rates could not be improved, were empirically incorrect. Other arguments, such as the threat of resource nationalism and need to overcome depletion, were appealing only to those who didn’t realize that they were the norm in the industry and didn’t represent an existential threat.
