ABSTRACT
In this chapter we develop and apply a model to assess the agricultural impacts of atmospheric pollution, and the social implications. Our model consists of a chain of physical, economic, and social processes which together determine the effects of various pollutants. The first link in this chain relates pollutants’ release to their concentrations in the atmosphere. Next, the model relates these pollutant concentrations to changes in world climate, both directly through the greenhouse effect and indirectly through the ozone effect. We first consider the effects on temperature only and then link these temperature changes with associated precipitation changes. Given these changes in climate, we next analyze the resulting effects on world agricultural markets, specifically on agricultural productivity and crop production decisions. Finally, we consider the implications of changes in agricultural markets on measures of producer and consumer welfare.
