ABSTRACT

This chapter describes Scotland's demographic situation by considering a small set of key demographic indicators. Demographic change is a slow process driven by changes in the three main demographic variables: fertility, mortality and net-migration. The chapter presents some key features of the government-produced population projections. The Scottish population was estimated to number 5,347,600 people on 30 June 2014. In terms of longer-run population growth, Scotland has been a slow-growth country. It is important to make clear that the main cause of population ageing is the steep drop in fertility from the peak of the baby boom to below-replacement level. The population projections suggest that any future growth in the potential supply of labour in Scotland will almost exclusively be driven by future levels of net-migration. The 20-64 age groups are often referred to as the "potential labour force". If potential labour force is to grow in Scotland in the future it will be because of much higher levels of net-migration.