ABSTRACT
The uses of empirical analysis for policies aimed at preventing genocide are reviewed. Two modes of quantitative analysis have been used to forecast the onset of genocides and political mass murders. Persisting (structural) factors such as national political organization, elite ideology, and ethnic discrimination have been shown to determine the long-term risks, or probabilities, of mass atrocities. The mix of accelerating and deaccelerating political events in high-risk countries shapes the short-term likelihood of outbreaks. A current global risk analysis is reported based on data for each of six key indicators. Risks are identified for two sets of countries: one for countries now experiencing civil war and political crises, including Syria and Ethiopia, the second for countries not now in serious conflicts. These conditional risks are highest for Saudi Arabia, Bahrein, and Mauritania. The results should focus international policy-making on ameliorating risk factors and on planning response scenarios when prevention fails.
