ABSTRACT
Projections of long-term U.S. supplies and demands for timber products have been with us for the past one hundred years or so. Current U.S. Forest Service efforts in this area stem from the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (act of August 17, 1974--Stat. 476, as amended; 16 U.S.C. 1600–1614). This legislation mandates a periodic Renewal Resource Assessment and includes, but is not limited to, “an analysis of present and anticipated uses, demand for, and supply of the renewable resources, with consideration of the international resource situation, and an emphasis of pertinent supply and demand price relationship trends.” For the assessment of the forest and rangeland situation in the United States (U.S. Forest Service, 1979), the Foreign Trade Analysis Work Unit in Portland, Oregon, was given primary responsibility for developing projections of long-term trade in timber products. The entire work unit contributed to the development of the projections. In this paper, I will report the results of the work unit’s efforts. The projections were used to interpret how international markets might affect U.S. supplies of, and demands for, timber products. In this case, long term means just 55that--projections of both U.S. domestic markets and trade were made to the year 2030, a fifty-year period. A period of this length is considered essential in order to take actions now to offset any undesirable market situations that might develop over the coming decades.
