Why it is timely to consider in corporating flood forecasting uncertainties in flood risk management

Using probabilistic forecasting to operationalize risk as a core decision-making criterion involves considering the odds an outcome will happen and the consequences of that outcome. In probabilistic flood forecasting, two components are involved: (1) estimating the spectrum of potential peak levels of water predicted, which determines the likelihood of flooding, and (2) determining the impact of flooding caused when water reaches the predicted levels (Dale et al., 2014).