ABSTRACT
Professor Krug examines German-Taiwanese relations and the prospects for Taiwan’s entry into the United Nations. She notes that although relations between the Federal Republic and Taiwan were limited in the past, interaction has increased in the last decade. This has mostly been due to changing economic conditions that have created more economic complementarity between the two countries, producing more trade and investment opportunities.
However, Professor Krug argues that, despite these forces pushing the two sides toward closer interaction, “the flag does not follow trade” in German-Taiwanese relations—that is, political ties do not follow economic interaction. She points out that a broad consensus in Germany is that Beijing holds the key to future developments. Therefore, Taiwan’s political moves are restricted to what Beijing tolerates. Germany, she continues, will support Taiwan’s entry into some international organizations, especially when they involve economic interests, but Taiwan cannot expect support beyond this. Although Taiwan’s growing position in the world economy makes Taiwan an attractive partner, that fact will have little effect in changing political relations between Germany and Taiwan.
Professor Krug concludes that future relations between the Federal Republic and Taiwan depend on a change in Taiwan’s policy toward the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Germany does not want to be forced to choose between Beijing and Taipei. She suggests that Taiwan pursue a Chinese version of German “Ostpolitik” that would involve direct negotiations to obtain Beijing’s consent. Meanwhile, however, Taiwan should continue to participate in as many international organizations as possible to reap the benefits of membership.
