ABSTRACT
The success of furthering this transition and enhancing the advanced capabilities of the PLA will depend not only on the internal training and strategic decisions of the PLA, but also on the outcome of debates and resultant policy priorities that will emerge from dealing with certain key social trends in China. Over the next fifteen to twenty years, China’s leaders will have to grapple with a number of social trends that will have profound consequences for government policy and will have an impact on the social environment within which the PLA operates. Some,
such as rising inequality and the problems of employment generation, if not handled well, may lead to social instability and thus indirectly affect the PLA. Others, such as the potential spread of HIV/AIDS, will have a more direct impact on the functioning of the PLA. This chapter looks at four main social trends. First, it examines salient demographic trends, including the aging of Chinese society, the changing gender balance, and rising urbanization. Second, it looks at employment trends, data that derive from these shifting demographics, and whether sufficient employment can be generated to prevent large numbers of unemployed males from inhabiting new and old urban areas. Third, it looks at the rising inequalities that have been part and parcel of the reforms, a trend that will be amplified over the short term by the policy to increase urbanization. Last but not least, it examines the spread of HIV/AIDS, a potential threat that, if not confronted effectively, could lead to 10 million or more infections over the next decade.
