ABSTRACT
This chapter considers three models for the growth in energy production up to the year 2000: Uniform Growth model; Pangloss Model and Optimistic but possible Model. Uniform Growth model assumes a uniform pattern of growth in total energy consumption, the fractions projected for the less developed countries (LDCs) and the developed countries (DCs). Pangloss Model assumes the immediate adoption of a policy of zero energy growth on the part of the Dcs, with the entire effort going into raising the level of the LDCs. Optimistic but possible model is leaning admittedly toward the optimistic end of the spectrum. The IAEA projections break down energy use into its fuel sources. Stored radioactivity is equivalent to the total radioactivity produced by the exposion of one Hiroshima or Nagasaki type atomic bomb. Plutonium production is confined to the technologically developed nations. Breeder reactors need is based on the assumption of a scarcity of economically recoverable uranium.
