ABSTRACT
The Arctic sea ice data released by the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre(NSIDC) and the shipping and tonnage figures announced by Russia’s Northern Sea Route Administration (NSRA) show the potential of increased shipping through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the future. The NSIDC recorded 14.14 million sq km of sea ice for April 2014 which is well below the 1981-2010 average expanse of 610,000 sq km.1 The regular seasonal decrease in the extent of sea ice suggests that the Arctic may become increasingly useable for navigation during summer months, i.e. May to September. This is also corroborated by a scientific study that used climate model simulations to predict that the Arctic may be seasonally ice-free by 2054.2
The NSRA, through its website, announced that 71 vessels (31 liquid, 4 bulk, 1 LNG, 13 general, 15 in ballast and 7 for repositioning) carried 1,355,897 tonnes of cargo through this route. Among these, 41 transited from west to east and 30 from east to west.3 These figures compare favourably to 4 vessel transits in 2010, 34 in 2011 and 46 in 2012. There has also been a significant increase in cargo volume from 0.8 million tonnes in 2011 to 1.3 million tonnes in 2013 and this figure is expected to increase by nearly 10 times to 19 million tonnes by 2021.4
Likewise, estimates indicate that nearly 25 million tonnes of oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the Russian Arctic could be transported through the NSR by 2021 and container traffic through the NSR would be economically attractive.5
MV Yong Sheng, a Chinese flagged container vessel operated by the Cosco Shipping Company, made a successful transit in 2013 through the NSR from Busan, South Korea to the Dutch port of Rotterdam in 21 days.6 These shipping trends are indicative of the steadily growing popularity of the NSR among shipping companies.
