ABSTRACT
Biofuels represent one avenue toward reducing dependence on imported energy as well as reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases. Here, we use the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), a system dynamics model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, to explore the potential development of the biofuels industry. This model is designed to analyze the implications of policy on the development of the supply chain for biofuels in the United States by explicitly representing the behavior of decision makers including farmers, investors, fueling station owners, and consumers. We analyze several illustrative case studies that explore a range of policies and discuss how incentives interact with individual parts of the supply chain as well as the industry as a whole.
