ABSTRACT

This chapter presents an analysis of the impact of oil prices, total factor productivity (TFP) and institutional weakness on the present growth retardation in Russia. First, it discusses Russia's dependence on oil and natural gas and provides an estimate of the value-added of the oil and gas industry generated by revenues from domestic production and exports of oil and gas. Russia's oil windfalls are captured using the concepts of terms of trade and trading gains (terms of trade adjustment). The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) oil nexus is also explained through energy efficiency or intensity. Next it analyses the impact of oil prices and TFP on growth using the estimation of regressions for the GDP oil nexus and production function. Then it investigates the relationship between TFP and growth in the present Russian economy. Finally, it considers the elusive impact of institutional weakness on Russia's growth using the World Bank's Governance Indicators (WGI) and the Ease of Doing Business index.