ABSTRACT
Exports of manufactured goods provided an opportunity for convergence towards developed-country manufacturing productivity levels. But a post-scarcity world diminishes the size of that potential export bonus. This chapter extrapolates from a small number of trends to argue that poor countries have traditionally relied on the extra income generated by exports to rich countries to help stimulate growth in their own economies. However, there are three trends potentially could close the window for this kind of export-led growth. First, the aging of rich country populations will shift consumption away from goods and toward mostly non-traded services, such as medical/health care. Second, rising wage costs in the most successful developing country exporters - think China, for example - and volatile but generally rising transportation fuel costs will reduce the incentives to offshore rich country production to developing countries. Third, the emergence and diffusion of new manufacturing technologies such as 3-D printing will strip out some of the need for low-wage labor.
