ABSTRACT
The chapter analyzes the potential contribution of photovoltaics (PV) to meet part of European and U.S. future electricity needs. A logistic growth model based on historical trends of PV markets was utilized in order to forecast electricity generation from PV between 2005 and 2070. Historical growth of other energy sources (e.g., oil, natural gas) and other silicon-based commodities (e.g., cellular phones, personal computers) were also analyzed in order to assess whether the projected growth rates for PV capacity that result from the model can be considered realistic. The PV forecasts are also compared with projections of other researchers. The forecasted energy generated from PV is then compared in energy units (barrels of oil equivalent) with forecasted European and U.S. domestic oil production. Our conclusion is that cumulative energy production from PV will be higher than domestic oil output for both regions for the forecast period. The role of European and U.S. national energy policies promoting PV development is examined in light of this finding.
