ABSTRACT
The aim of the present work is to model a range of options for the future energy system of a given society, say a country, with consideration of the surrounding energy systems (such as those of neighbouring countries) that may come into play by exchange of energy including purchase of fuels or other energy services. The definition of energy demand used here is true end-use energy, i.e. the energy derived after the final conversion taking place at the end-user for supplying some demanded energy service. This energy can be defined rigorously once the demand of energy services is determined, on the basis of a vision of the activities of the future society. In the runaway scenario, the energy demand grows at least as quickly as the overall economic activity (measured e.g. by the gross national product). The high-energy-growth scenario is similar to the runaway scenario, but with a slower increase in energy demand.
