ABSTRACT
This chapter presents the key challenges and opportunities that Russian external energy policy will have to deal with in a period between 2012 and 2030 as viewed in a series of future energy scenarios published over the last decade. The impact of a possible technological breakthrough on the global energy game in the next twenty years as well as the question of the impact of the use of hydrocarbons on climate change and an increasing focus on the need to de-hydrocarbonize economy will be addressed. The first scenario analysed is that of the UK Ministry of Defence, in which both Russia and energy are central. This chapter describes the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2025 (NIC) addresses the issues of energy and Russia in the most comprehensive manner. Statoil focuses more specifically on the natural gas markets, which are important for Russia.
